Ronin initiates buybacks: What will happen to RON?

On September 29, 2025, a key milestone will take place for the Ronin network: its Treasury will begin a RON buyback program. In simple terms, the accumulated reserves in ETH and USDC will be used to purchase RON tokens on the open market. This move has generated significant interest because, by reducing the amount of RON available, the inevitable question arises: what will happen to its price?

The Ronin Treasury and Its Role in the Ecosystem

The Ronin Treasury serves as the network’s strategic reserve. Today, it holds more than $4.5 million distributed across ETH, USDC, RON, and WRON. These funds come from several revenue streams: trading fees on the Katana DEX, a portion of transactions on Ronin Market and OpenSea, registration and renewal fees from the Ronin Name Service (RNS), and a fraction of gas fees collected through the EIP-1559 model.

This structure makes Ronin a chain that not only processes transactions but also generates direct income for its ecosystem.

How the Buybacks Will Work

The plan is simple but impactful: all of the Treasury’s ETH and USDC will be used to buy RON. The operation accounts for about 1.3% of the circulating supply and will be carried out onchain, with support from external market makers.

It is a one-way investment: there are no plans to sell RON in the future. In other words, the Treasury will absorb part of the available liquidity, reducing the circulating supply.

What This Means for the Price

The most immediate impact of a buyback is usually upward pressure. With fewer tokens circulating, those seeking to acquire RON will face lower availability, which can push the price higher. Additionally, such measures are often interpreted as a sign of confidence: if the network itself is spending millions of dollars to repurchase its token, it likely considers it undervalued or sees its future as promising.

However, the scale of the buyback must also be put into context. A 1.3% reduction in supply is significant but not necessarily large enough on its own to drive a structural change in price. The outcome will largely depend on other factors, such as overall crypto market conditions, adoption levels in gaming and NFTs, and the real interest of the community in continuing to use the network.

It is worth recalling that RON once traded at nearly $4.45 in March 2024, while today it is around $0.50. This highlights both its recovery potential and the long path it must travel to approach its all-time highs. The buyback may serve as an initial catalyst, but it will be Ronin’s economic activity that determines whether the rise consolidates or fades over time.

Possible Scenarios

In an optimistic scenario, the price could rise between 10% and 30% in the weeks following the start of the buybacks, especially if it coincides with a bullish market and a rebound in gaming and NFT activity on the network.

A moderate scenario would show a smaller initial increase, followed by a stabilization phase, with prices slightly higher than current levels but without major jumps.

On the other hand, there is also the possibility that the momentum will be temporary: if the global market remains weak or demand for RON does not increase, the price could return to levels similar to today’s after the initial enthusiasm fades.

Conclusion

The start of Ronin Treasury’s buybacks is set to be a significant event for the token. It is very likely that we will see an immediate price increase due to the reduced supply and the positive psychological effect on investors.

In summary, what will happen with RON is a short-term boost. What could happen, however, is far more uncertain: ranging from sustained recovery to a pullback if demand does not keep pace with the expectations generated by the buyback.